Without exaggeration, this year’s Academy Awards season has been a bust. And if you’re an annual fan, making predictions who or what will win, it’s an ugly challenge.
So, watching the Oscarcast today (March 2) on ABC (2 p.m. live Hawaii time, repeating at 6:30 p.m.) will be a nail-biter.
Unlike last year’s top competitors, where there were two front-runners — “Oppenheimer” (which won big) and “Barbie” – who led the pack in guesstimation.
This season has been weird, dominated by foreign entries, with titles only briefly screened in movie theaters and, in certain cases, streaming on cable TV. Methinks if a film is not shown in a regular movie theater, where folks can attend and buy tickets, it ought not to be eligible for contention for an Oscar, the prime movie prize. Showing it on TV is a cop-out.
There now are 10 nominees for Best Picture. To predict which one will win, when access to watch ‘em is highly limited, is a real challenge. Of the 10 in contention, I saw only five this year, four in theaters, one via streaming on TV.
One certainty: “Wicked” has been the biggest box office hit, grossing more than $700 million so far. But aside from technical rewards, don’t expect it to win Best Picture laurels or acting honors. It’s clearly this year’s monetary champ.
So my predictions are shamefully flawed, largely based on what I’ve read, not seen. Hunches shouldn’t count, but what the heck…I’ll take my chances in the key categories.
So stay with me. Please.
Best Picture
Nominees
Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part II”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Prediction: “Conclave.” Sticking with a traditional Hollywood film, a fascinating ritual on how a Pope is selected. This, as a real life Pope’s health is in jeopardy
Favored: “Anora.”
Best Director
Nominees:
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Prediction: Sean Baker, “Anora.” (A certainty, since Edgar Berger, who directed “Conclave,” is absent among the nominees).
Best Actor
Nominees:
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Prediction: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Favored: Adrien Brody
Best Actress
Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Prediction: Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Favored: Demi Moore
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Prediction: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Favored: Kieran Culkin
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Favored: Zoe Saldaña,
Best Song
Nominees:
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing”
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”
Prediction: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
Favored: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
And that’s Show Biz…